Blog

A collection of projects exploring baseball statistics

August 10, 2025

Game Score Frequencies: Predicting the Next Scorigami

Using probability to predict the next scorigami (a never before seen final score). Three methods are used: A Poisson Model, a Negative Binomial Model, and a Random Forest. We aggregate the predictions to reach our conclusion.

July 19, 2025

Fine Wine or Milk? Part 2: Typology-Specific Aging Curves

A look at how different skillsets and batting profiles change with age.

July 10, 2025

Deconstructing WAR: A Visualization

Visualizing player career skill profiles based on Wins Above Replacement (WAR) components.

July 5, 2025

Fine Wine or Milk? Part 1: The WAR/G Aging Curve

Creating an aging curve to represent player value that is a function of both age and ability.

June 15, 2025

Stat Stability: When Can we Predict Season Outcomes?

Idenitifying the settling time of a statistic like OPS using a sliding window approach.

January 20, 2024

Modeling Pitch Count States as a Markov Process

The rates at which strikes and balls are thrown in each count illuminate within-count pitcher strengths and weaknesses.